Cost and time damping: evidence from aggregate rail direct demand models

There is a significant body of evidence from both disaggregate choice modelling literature and practical travel demand forecasting that the responsiveness to cost and possibly to time diminishes with journey length. This has, in Britain at least, been termed ‘Cost Damping’, and is recognised in guidance issued by the UK Department for Transport. However, the consistency of the effect across modes and data types has not been established. Cost damping, if it exists, affects both the forecasting of demand and our understanding of behaviour. This paper aims to investigate the evidence for cost and time damping in rail demand using aggregate rail ticket sales data. The rail ticket sales data in Britain has, for many years, formed the basis of analysis of a wide range of impacts of rail demand. It records the number of tickets sold between station pairs, and it is generally felt to provide a reasonably accurate reflection of travel demand. However, the consistency of these direct demand models with choice modelling and highway demand model structures has not been investigated. Rail direct demand models estimated by ticket sales data indicate only slight variation in the fare elasticity with distance, as is evidenced in the largest meta-analysis of price elasticities conducted to date (Wardman in J Transp Econ Policy 48(3):367–384, 2014). This study of UK elasticities shows strong variation between urban and inter-urban trips, presumably a segmentation at least in part by purpose, but less remaining variation by trip length. A lack of variation by length supports the hypothesis of cost damping, because constant cost sensitivity would imply that fare elasticity would increase strongly with distance, because of the increasing impact of higher fares at longer distances. In this paper we indicate that rail direct demand models have some consistency of behavioural paradigm with utility based choice models used in highway planning. We go on to use rail demand data to estimate time and fare elasticities in the context of various cost damping functions. Our empirical contribution is to estimate time elasticities on a basis directly comparable with cost elasticities and to show that the phenomenon of cost damping is strongly present in ticket sales data. This finding implies that cost damping should be included in models intended for multimodal analysis, which may otherwise give incorrect predictions.     

Review of managing the risks of offshore banking and its implications for the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone

As more and more Chinese and foreign-funded banks settle in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (CSPFTZ), it has become an imperative to enhance risk management of offshore banking. At the international level, the regulatory effort for offshore banking mainly focuses on tax evasion and money laundering. Existing regulatory frameworks have established standards to identify countries providing facilities for money laundering and developed punitive measures. In terms of strategy, it is suggested that, firstly, relevant regulatory measures should be improved in the short term, and it is necessary to define the scope of offshore banking and regulatory measures for Chinese banks and foreign-funded banks under a suitable legal framework. Secondly, it is necessary to establish risk exposure mechanism and risk evaluation system for the offshore banking in the CSPFTZ, while risk management measures are implemented based on on-site supervision. Thirdly, in the medium and long term, it is necessary to enhance management of potential risks which can be created by offshore banking due to deregulation. Fourthly, on the one hand, specific regulations should be formulated to provide a regulatory basis for taxation; on the other hand, tax informational exchange agreements (TIEAs) may be used as a reference for achieving effective tax regulation.     

Factors associated with home-based e-working and e-shopping in Nanjing,China

The widespread adoption of information and communication technology has facilitated frequent e-activities in people’s daily life. From the perspective of individual’s time use on e-working and e-shopping at home, this paper aims to enhance our understanding of the function of home beyond a living space for family life. Using a household survey of 608 full-time paid employees who conducted e-activities at home in Nanjing, China, we investigated the characteristics and patterns of home-based e-working and e-shopping. Only 7.9% of the respondents neither e-shopped nor e-worked at home. We find that the socio-demographic context, Internet use habits, attitudes towards e-working/e-shopping, and geographical accessibility have influenced the patterns of home-based e-working and e-shopping. The results indicate that the rich e-activities taking place at home have changed the time use at home and reinforced the function of home as a multifunctional hub.     

The jurisdictional challenges to the prosecution of piracy cases in Kenya: mixed fortunes for a perfect model in the global war against piracy

Since 2008 Kenya has distinguished itself in the global war against piracy by undertaking prosecutions in the national courts of suspected pirates arrested in the high seas and handed over by navies of leading maritime nations under bilateral agreements (MOUs) entered into between Kenya and these leading maritime nations. As of July 2011, Kenya had over 20 convicted pirates serving jail terms ranging between 7 and 20 years and over 100 suspected pirates awaiting trial in national courts. This is the largest number of suspected pirates held and tried in any one state at any given time in modern history. To achieve this, Kenya had to effect far reaching changes in the law. In the initial stages, suspected pirates were charged under Kenya’s Penal Code (Cap 63 Laws of Kenya). However, the high court in the case of Re Mohamud Mohamed Dashi and eight others [2010] eKLR, ruled that Kenya had no jurisdiction to try suspected pirates under that law. In September 2009, Kenya passed a new law (the Merchant Shipping Act), which not only defined more comprehensively and extensively the offence of piracy, but also extended the jurisdiction of Kenyan courts to try piracy committed by non-nationals. Though the law gives Kenya a very broad jurisdiction to try suspected pirates, the process is still fraught with challenges due to lack of financial and human resources. In the case of Republic vs Hassan Jama Haleys Alias Hassan Jamal and five others [2010] eKLR, the court commented thus:

“… I must note that the ‘piracy trials’ have presented a unique challenge to the Kenyan legal system. We cannot ignore the fact that these are suspects who having been arrested by foreign naval forces on the High Seas are brought to Kenya for trial. They are strangers in the country, do not understand the legal system, may not know what their rights are and do not understand the language… the Kenyan Government and the International partners supporting these trials put in place a system to provide free legal representation for the suspects…”     

Fast Ferry Smoothing Motion via Intelligent PD Controller

A novel type of control law was adopted to reduce the vertical acceleration of a fast ferry as well as the motion sickness incidence suffered by the passengers onboard by means of a submerged T-foil. Considering the system changing characteristics under high disturbances, a model-free approach was adopted. In addition, an upgraded proportional-derivative (PD) controller with correction terms resulting from a fast-online estimation of the system dynamics was designed. The overall controller, known as intelligent PD (i-PD) controller, was tested, and the obtained results were compared with those of a classic PD controller. The controllers were also tested in a changing environment and at different operating velocities. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the i-PD controller to smooth the motions with low computational cost control schemes. Furthermore, thanks to ability of the i-PD controller to continually update the estimated dynamics of the system, it showed a better reduction in both vertical motions and the seasickness level of the passengers with the needed robustness under external disturbances and system changing parameters.     

Full Duplex Communications for Next Generation Cellular Networks: The Capacity Gain

Full duplex communication highly improves spectrum efficiency of a wireless communication link. However, when it is applied to a cellular network, the capacity gain from this technology remains unknown. The reason is that full duplex communication changes the aggregate interference experienced by each communication link in cellular networks. In this paper, the capacity gain from full duplex communication is studied for cellular networks of 4G and beyond, where the same frequency channel is adopted in each cell. A two-layer Poisson point process (PPP) is adopted to model the network topology, and stochastic geometry is employed to derive the coverage probability and the average capacity of typical link in a cellular network. On the basis of these derived parameters, the capacity gain from full duplex communication is determined. Numerical results reveal that without mutual interference cancellation (MIC), the capacity gain is small under various power levels; with perfect MIC at base stations, the capacity gain can exceed 60%; with imperfect MIC at base stations, the capacity gain decreases quickly even with a slight drop of MIC performance.     

Robust network pricing and system optimization under combined long-term stochasticity and elasticity of travel demand

Network pricing serves as an instrument for congestion management, however, agencies and planners often encounter problems of estimating appropriate toll prices. Tolls are commonly estimated for a single-point deterministic travel demand, which may lead to imperfect policy decisions due to inherent uncertainties in future travel demand. Previous research has addressed the issue of demand uncertainty in the pricing context, but the elastic nature of demand along with its uncertainty has not been explicitly considered. Similarly, interactions between elasticity and uncertainty of demand have not been characterized. This study addresses these gaps and proposes a framework to estimate nearest optimal first-best tolls under long-term stochasticity in elastic demand. We show first that the optimal tolls under the deterministic-elastic and stochastic-elastic demand cases coincide when cost and demand functions are linear, and the set of equilibrium paths is constant. These assumptions are restrictive, so three larger networks are considered numerically, and the subsequent pricing decisions are assessed. The results of the numerical experiments suggest that in many cases, optimal pricing decisions under the combined stochastic-elastic demand scenario resemble those when demand is known exactly. The applications in this study thus suggest that inclusion of demand elasticity offsets the need of considering future demand uncertainties for first-best congestion pricing frameworks.     

Isolating high-priority metro and feeder bus transfers using smart card data

Fixed-rail metro (or ‘subway’) infrastructure is generally unable to provide access to all parts of the city grid. Consequently, feeder bus lines are an integral component of urban mass transit systems. While passengers prefer a seamless transfer between these two distinct transportation services, each service’s operations are subject to a different set of factors that contribute to metro-bus transfer delay. Previous attempts to understand transfer delay were limited by the availability of tools to measure the time and cost associated with passengers’ transfer experience. This paper uses data from smart card systems, an emerging technology that automatically collects passenger trip data, to understand transfer delay. The primary objective of this study is to use smart card data to derive a reproducible methodology that isolates high priority transfer points between the metro system and its feeder-bus systems. The paper outlines a methodology to identify transfer transactions in the smart card dataset, estimate bus headways without the aid of geographic location information, estimate three components of the total transfer time (walking time, waiting time, and delay time), and isolate high-priority transfer pairs. The paper uses smart card data from Nanjing, China as a case study. The results isolate eight high priority metro-bus transfer pairs in the Nanjing metro system and finally, offers several targeted measures to improve transfer efficiency.